Research

Job Market Paper

Technological Displacement and Modern Slavery: Evidence From Local Labor Markets (Joint with Y. Barreto and Gil do Vigor) (07/2026)

Presented at the 46º SBE, 2025; UNU-WIDER/ISID Development Conference, 2026; Canadian Economic Association, 2026. Scheduled: Jobs and Development Conference, 2026; Stone Center Summer School on Socioeconomic Opportunity and Inequality, 2026

Working Papers and Selected Work in Progress

The Lasting Costs of Lost Savings: Liquidity Freeze, Recession, and Equality (Joint with Y. Barreto) (04/2025)

Presented at the LACEA Annual Meeting, 2023; 45º SBE, 2023; NEUDC, 2024; WEFIDEV 2024

Moral Values and the Gender Divide in Intimate Partner Violence Attitudes (Joint with S. Anderson) (03/2026)

Presented at the 12th Toulouse Economics and Biology Workshop (Sex Differences in Human Life History Evolution)

Coercion at the Frontier: Property Rights and Modern Slavery in the Amazon (Joint with Y. Barreto and Gil do Vigor) (07/2026)

Scheduled: All California Labor Economics Conference (ACLEC), 2026

Long-Term Effects of a Commodity Boom: Rubber Slavery in the Amazon (Joint with H. Laudares, D. Murillo, H. Paredes, and F. Valencia) (11/2025)

Press Coverage: Voces (In Spanish)IDB Working Paper Series: No 1764CAF Working Paper: No 2026/0 2Presented at the LACEA Annual Meeting, 2025Grants awarded by the Inter-American Development Bank’s Gender and Diversity Lab and by the Development Bank of Latin America and the Caribbean (CAF)

Market Power and Modern Slavery (Joint with Y. Barreto and Gil do Vigor) (07/2026)

Economic Production and Supernatural Beliefs: Evidence from Pastoral Societies in Africa (joint with B. Carrillo and B. Sampaio) (03/2026)

IZA Discussion Paper: No 14938Presented at the LACEA Annual Meeting, 2021; 43º SBE, 2021; ASREC Conference,2022; CNEH, 2022; Ridge Historical Development Workshop, 2022; LEAP, 2022; Oxford Grad. Seminar in Economic and Social History, 2022; ASREC Europe Conference, 2022; LAMES Annual Meeting, 2022; 44º SBE, 2022; WGAPE-CEGA, 2023Journal of Development Economics, Revision Requested.

Minimum Wages and the Human Capital of the Next Generation (joint with B. Carrillo, W. Iglesias, and B. Sampaio) (11/2025)

Runner-up for the 2021 SBE Best Paper in Applied Microeconomics.Presented at the LAMES Annual Meeting, 2021; 43º SBE, 2021; ASSA - AEA Annual Meeting, 2022Journal of Development Economics, Revision Requested.

Published and Forthcoming Papers

Illegal Markets and Contemporary Slavery: Evidence from the Mahogany Trade in the Amazon (Joint with Y. Barreto, R. Tigre, and D. Castro)

[Gated] Press Coverage: VoxDevJournal of Development Economics - Vol. 166, Jan. (2024): nº103177Presented at the 44º SBE, 2022
Abstract: The prevalence of modern slavery is a major global concern, with an estimated 49.7 million people enslaved in 2022. This paper explores the impact of illegal markets on this phenomenon, focusing on the Brazilian government's complete shutdown of the mahogany market in the late 90s. Utilizing a quasi-experimental research design that exploits the natural variation in the occurrence of mahogany trees in Brazilian municipalities, we employ novel administrative data on labor inspections from the Brazilian Ministry of Labor to assess the effects of this shutdown on modern slavery. Our results indicate that the mahogany market shutdown significantly increased the probability of labor inspections discovering slave labor in affected municipalities. The outcomes are not influenced by coordinated police efforts targeting companies following the alteration in the law. This is evident as all the police operations within the sampled locations were initiated in response to local complaints, rather than stemming from independent police investigations. Furthermore, we validate our findings by implementing several robustness exercises. This research provides important evidence of the relationship between illegal markets and modern slavery, emphasizing the need for further investigation into this area. Keywords: Modern slavery, Deforestation, Illegal markets

The Long-Run Economic Consequences of Iodine Supplementation. (joint with B. Carrillo and B. Sampaio)

IZA Discussion Paper: No 14203 ; [Gated] Journal of Health Economics, Vol. 79, Sep. (2021): nº10249, (Lead article)Presented at the REAP 2019; 41º SBE, 2019; RIDGE Impact Evaluation Network, 2020.

Abstract: Using contemporary data from a developing country, we show that iodine supplementation early in life leads to greater human capital acquisition and raises lifetime income. We argue that higher educational attainment facilitated a transition from agriculture to jobs that demand more skilled labor and have higher economic returns. We find no increase in total employment, but a significant change in the occupational structure that translated into increased earnings scores. These findings suggest that nutritional deficiencies of iodine during critical periods of development play an important role in shaping future skills and the pathway of labor market income. Keywords: Iodine Supplementation; Long-run; Educational Attainment; Labor Market Outcomes.

Do extended school day programs affect performance in college admission tests? (joint with G. Bayma, C. Melo, L. Sampaio, and M. Mendonça)

[Gated] Press Coverage: ExameBrazilian Review of Econometrics, Vol. 40, No. 2 (2020): 232-266Presented at the 41º SBE, 2019.

Abstract: We assess the effects of a Brazilian extended high school day program on college admission test scores. The program entails an increase in Math/Science and Language class time, and the introduction of extra-class activity time. We exploit variation in program implementation timing to apply a difference-in-differences strategy and an event-study approach. Results show positive large effects on test scores and suggest that these effects are likely driven by increased class and extra-class activity hours. Moreover, the program affects not only scores in subjects for which it contemplates increased class time, but also in Humanities. Finally, we are able to show that increased time dedicated to academic-related extra-class activities works as a multiplier of program effects. In fact, these additional hours spent in complementary activities make the magnitude of program effects double from 0.092-0.150 to 0.180-0.317 standard deviation. Keywords: Extended High School Day Program; Difference-in-differences; Event-study; College Admission Test Scores

Technical Notes and Policy Work (In Portuguese)

Evaluation and Monitoring of Public Policies of the Ministry of Citizenship. Gappe Report; Sponsor: Ministry of Citizenship, Brazil (2020).

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